Oct 17

Markets and Trends

Overall market trends are still bullish. So, generally I am going to stay long.

Let us see how our major indices are doing:

SPY: Looking nicely bullish

IWM: About neutral with bias towards bullish. It has been flat last 2 weeks or so.

EEM: Very bullish. I am long Brazil – BRZU, Russia – RUSL and China – YINN. Brazil has been turbulent so I am watchng closely. But Russia and China are doing fine.

QQQ: Very bullish

XLF: Moderately bullish

XLE: Neutral. Has been going nowhere over the last 3 weeks. I would just hold for now.

XLV: Topsy-turvy and now in just about neutral territory

XBI: Getting into neutral territory. Has been bullish so the bias is towards bullish trend. But need to watch closely. I am long LABU.

SOX: Very bullish so I will stay the course with SOXL

Oct 17

Markets Still Bullish – Stay the course

Markets closed down today and the VIX creeped up by 7%. But still cannot say it is the end of the bullish trend. We will need to see how tomorrow unfolds. I will not be doing anything tomorrow morning.

SPY: It was down today but overall still bullish. Stay the course

IWM: Still bullish

EEM: I would call it neutral for now. Remains to be seen how it shapes up eventually.

QQQ: Bullish and the 10-day moving average just went over the 20-day moving average. Not a big deal but a good sign.

XLF: Nicely bullish

Oct 17

Strongly Bullish Market – Stay The Course

The futures look down this morning about an hour before trading. But overall market is strongly bullish and there is no reason for me to try and be a contrarian at this point. I will just listen to what the market trend is telling me and stay the course. Here is how some of the sector trends look like:

SPY: Very bullish and looking very strong

IWM: Very bullish

EEM: Reasonably bullish had a good run up over the last 3 or so trading days

XLK: Nicely bullish

XLF: Extremely bullish

XLE: Yes, bullish

XLU: Bearish, stay away

XLV: Neutral by my assessment, some may say bullish, but I think there are better choices

GLD: Bearish, sell and get out if you own

Oct 17

Everything is Bullish: YINN big winner today

Without a doubt everything is bullish right now. Almost all sectors are doing well. The mistake one can make right now is to get fearful and think that the market has gone up too much too soon. Maybe that is true but the only thing to remember is “price is truth”. So, unless I see a meaningful negative downturn I will stay long my positions.

Today looks like YINN will be the big winner in my portfolio. It is up over 6% in early morning trading. Here is the 3-month chart in comparison to the SPY.

It has had a good run with not too much turbulence. It is up almost 40% compared to around 4% for the S&P 500. It just made another short-term high today. Looks very strong and I will continue to hold it for now.

Oct 17

XLK better returns than SPY

A quick observation that over the last 3 months the XLK (Technology sector) has performed better than the overall market (S&P 500) measured under SPY.

Here is the 3-month comparison chart:

SPY has returned 4.1% and XLK almost double that at 8.9%.

I am long TECL based on trend seen in XLK.

Dec 16

A Great Month of November but Weakness ahead?

November turned out to be a great month. It was also the best month for me. But the last day of the month gave some indication that there could be some weakness the next few days. The expectation is the market will take a breather and then march right on to give us a great December as well. But one has to be cautious. Let’s see where the markets are:

SPY: still looking bullish

IWM: bullish but price crossed below the 10-day moving average; could be temporary but certainly something to keep an eye out for the next few days

EEM: still bad and does not look like will change any time soon

XLF: bullish and looking good

XLK: slightly bullish but dipped below the 10-day moving average so there is some weakness

XLE: ripped 5% yesterday and went dramatically bullish obviously based on the OPEC agreement

XLU: looks bad

XLI: bullish and looking good

Nov 16

Fear and Greed and Hope?

It is very surprising how many people, including the pundits, can be so over consumed with their theories and predictions why the market should behave in a certain way. These are people who, even when they see the market behaving a certain way, will stick with their assessmnt of what should be happening.

Some of this is happening now. The market has been going up in a straight line since the election and many are calling for correction. I am not suggesting the correction will not happen – just that I have no idea. If it does come I will do the needfull. And if the markets keep going up I will do the needfull as well.

Anyway, enough talk, let’s see the trends:

SPY: bullish and looking strong

IWM: bullish

EEM: still broken but trying to trend up

XLF: bullish

XLK: breaking towards bullish, looks much better than last week

XLE: bullish

XLU: bearish and broken

XLI: bullish


Nov 16

Every Market is Looking Good, What Now?

Markets have generally been on a tear. I want to look at the basics again this morning to see what the trends look like especially since this morning it looks like the market will open to the downside.

SPY: bullish ans looks steady as of now

IWM: bullish and looking good

EEM: completely broken and looks really bad; I will not go near this

XLF: Trend remains bullish

QQQ: has not yet really turned bullish, trend still looks neutral, wondering if they are going to join the party or not

XLK: just touching the bullish trend but not yet; today will be important to see if it breaks out to the upside

XLE: looks nicely bullish

XBI: in danger of turning bearish at this point

XME: nicely bullish

XLU: very bearish

XLI: very bullish

GLD: completely broken, this one is going down


Nov 16

Market Trend has Reversed to the Upside

The markets have completely turned around and the trend is bullish now. There is some fear that it has risen too much too soon. But in my opinion, the trendlines are clear and for the most part the rise has been orderly if one discounts the after hours midnight trading on election night.

I have reversed all my positions and anticipate the rise to continue for a while.

SPY: has turned bullish; I am long SPXL

IWM: same as the SPY – has turned bullish; I am long TNA

EEM: completely broken and with dollar headwinds I would stay away for now

QQQ: bearish; perhaps because of perceived positions of President-Elect Trump

XLF: hugely bullish; I am long FAS



Nov 16

The Election Trade

From all indications it looks like Hillary Clinton will win the election tomorrow. What is really interesting is whether the Democrats will also take the Senate. Right now it looks that way. If that happens it would be a strong mandate for Hillary. The House seems like will still remain Republican. So, the overall givernment will be split. However, having the Senate behind her may make stronger and the expectations from her first 2 years could be higher than normal.

The general concensus is that there will be a bounce in the aftermath of a Clinton victory. In fact, the pre-market numbers look like there will be a very strong bounce of the lows we have seen.

From the trends perspective, SPY is still very bearish. IWM could be looking to bounce. EEM looks bad. The Technology sector (XLK and QQQ) both look bad. The XLF is neutral. The XLE is broken as well.

XLV and XBI both look broken and will likely have a negative impact even if Hillary wins. I am long puts on both of them.

I am positioned bearishly in the market but will look to trim if I see the trends turning for real.