Jul 15

SPY delicately poised, EEM and XLE still bearish

The SPY is delicately poised just above the 200-day moving average. The short-term indicators are bearish but the SPY has had a habit of bouncing off its 200-day average. It has happened twice in the past 1 year. So, I am going to watch very closely.

EEM is really looking bad. I continue to be long the EDZ. This has paid off well so far.

XLE – same situation, very bearish. I am long ERY and holding on to it.

Jul 15

Broader Market Trending Better

The SPY has moved into slightly bullish territory, but barely.

XLE is still bearish, so I hold on to my ERY for now.

EEM tried to break through but not succeeding, still looks bearish and I am long EDZ.

XLK and QQQ are hugely bullish given the rise in the overall technology sector.

XLF is also trending higher.

Overall this looks good for the SPY to continue to trend higher. I am going to watch and make a short-term move possibly – perhaps buy some calls.

Jul 15

SPY looks bad

The SPY dipped and closed below the 200-day moving average. Today could be important but I still think the risk is to the downside – not me just the trend. The futures as I write this look higher. But we know how volatile the trading days have been.

EEM and XLE were decimated yesterday and look really bad.

Jul 15

Watching SPY

As mentioned yesterday, the SPY is at an interesting point. It is perilously close to breaking the 200-day moving average. However, so far it has been able to stay above it. The last time it dipped below its 200-day moving average was back in October 2014.

Of course this seesaw battle with the market is almost like playing a game with my position in SPXS. I am actually a little bit under water. But again, looking at the perilous position that SPY is in I cannot help but wait.

No change in EEM and XLE – both are still bearish.

Jul 15

Market Trends with SPY, EEM and XLE

The SPY is bearish of course, but it bounced back off its 200-day moving average and trying to stay above it. But every other indicator is bearish. I am just about breaking even now in my SPXS trade.

XLE continues in its downward spiral. My trade in ERY is up about 20% now.

EEM is even more bearish. My trade in EDZ is up about 22% at this time.

Jun 15

Market Headwinds continue for SPY, EEM, XLE

The news and uncertainly is driving markets down.

SPY: The price closed still holding above the 100-day trend-line. Today it may again try to hold the line although pre-markets situation looks dire to say the least. I am long SPXS.

XLE: Does not look like coming back at all from the doldrums. I am long ERY.

EEM: Really looking bad. I am long EDZ.

Jun 15

Market Trend Uncertain

SPY is still very choppy. The long-term uptrend is intact but there is definitely a possibility of a quick dip down. The price tested the 100-day moving average twice this month and managed to stay above it. I am still holding SPXS as a protection.

EEM is still bearish even though it showed some strength in the last 2 trading days. I am still long EDZ and playing EEM to the downside.

XLE is still flat out bearish. It tried to go above the 10-day moving average but failed. I am long ERY.

In general there is uncertainty in the market and one will need to move fast as required.

Jun 15

SPY Trend Range

The SPY has been doing an oscillation between the 20-day moving average and the 100-day moving average for a while. It has not meaningfully broken below the 100-day moving average for a long time. It does not look like it is going to do that anytime soon either. To me it looks like a range bound trend where the general trend is still upwards. I am still playing the downside using SPXS but it would probably be prudent to get out today with a no loss no gain situation.

EEM on the other hand is still very bearish. My downside trade with EDZ has about a 10% gain at this time and I think there is still room to run for this.

Same with XLE – still looks very bearish. I am long ERY and holding a 10% gain at this time.

Jun 15

Trades on SPY, XLE, EEM

SPY: has been choppy the last 6 months with a slow trend going up; so this could have been a temporary bearish signal based on which I went long SPXS; I will likely get out today and wait for a clearer trend.

EEM: still very bearish, I am going to stay long the EDZ

XLE: very bearish, I am going to stay long the ERY

Jun 15

Market Bounced: What is the Trend now

Huge bounce yesterday and I want to see what happens today. This could be a 1 or 2 day event or it could be the beginning of a new upward trend.

SPY: huge bounce but as of now still below 30 day high price; today’s price action (particularly the closing price) will be interesting; as of now I am holding SPXS at a loss; it is possible I got in too early.

XLE: good bounce in this as well but still looks quite bearish; I am still long ERY (which is similar to 3-times inverse of XLE); but my gain was reduced drastically yesterday and only about 3% at this time.

EEM: again very good bounce yesterday; I am still long EDZ (which is similar to 3-times inverse of EEM) and my gain now stands at just over 6%.