01
Dec 16

A Great Month of November but Weakness ahead?

November turned out to be a great month. It was also the best month for me. But the last day of the month gave some indication that there could be some weakness the next few days. The expectation is the market will take a breather and then march right on to give us a great December as well. But one has to be cautious. Let’s see where the markets are:

SPY: still looking bullish

IWM: bullish but price crossed below the 10-day moving average; could be temporary but certainly something to keep an eye out for the next few days

EEM: still bad and does not look like will change any time soon

XLF: bullish and looking good

XLK: slightly bullish but dipped below the 10-day moving average so there is some weakness

XLE: ripped 5% yesterday and went dramatically bullish obviously based on the OPEC agreement

XLU: looks bad

XLI: bullish and looking good


27
Nov 16

Fear and Greed and Hope?

It is very surprising how many people, including the pundits, can be so over consumed with their theories and predictions why the market should behave in a certain way. These are people who, even when they see the market behaving a certain way, will stick with their assessmnt of what should be happening.

Some of this is happening now. The market has been going up in a straight line since the election and many are calling for correction. I am not suggesting the correction will not happen – just that I have no idea. If it does come I will do the needfull. And if the markets keep going up I will do the needfull as well.

Anyway, enough talk, let’s see the trends:

SPY: bullish and looking strong

IWM: bullish

EEM: still broken but trying to trend up

XLF: bullish

XLK: breaking towards bullish, looks much better than last week

XLE: bullish

XLU: bearish and broken

XLI: bullish

 


23
Nov 16

Every Market is Looking Good, What Now?

Markets have generally been on a tear. I want to look at the basics again this morning to see what the trends look like especially since this morning it looks like the market will open to the downside.

SPY: bullish ans looks steady as of now

IWM: bullish and looking good

EEM: completely broken and looks really bad; I will not go near this

XLF: Trend remains bullish

QQQ: has not yet really turned bullish, trend still looks neutral, wondering if they are going to join the party or not

XLK: just touching the bullish trend but not yet; today will be important to see if it breaks out to the upside

XLE: looks nicely bullish

XBI: in danger of turning bearish at this point

XME: nicely bullish

XLU: very bearish

XLI: very bullish

GLD: completely broken, this one is going down

 


18
Nov 16

The Bull Ride Continues

Firstly, I sold off my long positions on TNA and FAS yesterdat just before close. I may have sold off early because it was clearly not based on any trend reversal. But I feel the Financials and the Small Caps havebeen on a straight-up trajectory and did not feel confident that that could continue. I will watch the market and may get into them again soon.

Here is how the trends look at this time:

SPY: nicely bullish, no sign of any jitters, I am long SPXL

IWM: very much bullish, but I took my position in TNA off as I thought that this sector has gone up too much too soon. I could be wrong and this could certainly keep going higher in which case I will get in again

EEM: completely broken and bearish

QQQ: this looks neutral at this time; I do gave a small options play on the long side on this with the expectation that the technology sector will catch up to the broader market soon

XLF: very bullish but I took off my long position in FAS thinking the financials have gone up too much too soon

XLE: bullish

XLI: bullish

XME: bullish – I am long call options

XBI: bullish – I am long call options

XLV: somewhat bullish

XLU: broken and looking bearish


14
Nov 16

Trade Setups for FAS, TNA and SPXL

Markets are still looking good. In fact they look stronger and seems like the rest of the year could be an uptrend. But I never want to assume anything so will keep watching every day what the trend tells me. As of today, the trend is distinctly bullish.

I am long:

SPXL based on trend seen in the SPY. The trend looks bullish even though it had a down day last Friday.

FAS based on trend seen in XLF. This looks strongly bullish.

TNA based on trend seen in IWM. Again looks string bullish.

So, what about the others. Let us take a quick look at them.

QQQ: Is suffering and looking bearish with the election hangover over it.

XLE: Is kind of neutral at this time. I will keep watching.

EEM: This one is really broken. Completely bearish.

XLU: Completely broken.

XLI: Hugely bullish.

So, seems very much that market is specifically driving up based on expectations from the new President-Elect so far. I wonder if that expectation eventually takes the rest of the market higher or the expectations get dashed somewhere in the next days or weeks. The issue here is that there will be a lot of speculation from now till inauguration day with not much real policy decisions. So, fear could grip the market at any time.


11
Nov 16

Market Trend has Reversed to the Upside

The markets have completely turned around and the trend is bullish now. There is some fear that it has risen too much too soon. But in my opinion, the trendlines are clear and for the most part the rise has been orderly if one discounts the after hours midnight trading on election night.

I have reversed all my positions and anticipate the rise to continue for a while.

SPY: has turned bullish; I am long SPXL

IWM: same as the SPY – has turned bullish; I am long TNA

EEM: completely broken and with dollar headwinds I would stay away for now

QQQ: bearish; perhaps because of perceived positions of President-Elect Trump

XLF: hugely bullish; I am long FAS

 

 


09
Nov 16

The Aftermath

Markets are holding up well after the stunning election results from last night. It remains to be seen how long it can hold up. The big question mark is what Trump says about trade in the next few days. Having been very vocal about it during the pre-election phase, it is doubtful that he will not do anything.

I am still bearishly positioned in the market based on trends I have been watching. It is time to take stock of those trends again:

SPY: Still somewhat of a bearish trend; I will keep watching and take my bearish trade off if the trend changes

IWM: Similar to SPY this is also still in a bearish trend; I am currently positioned with a bearish trade through put options and long TZA

EEM: This is the only one that has dropped heavily, about 3% as of now. I am positioned with a bearish trade using put options.

USO: Very bearish. I am positioned the wrong way. I need to get out of my call option quickly while it is still breakeven.

XLV: Bearish but good bounce today and could be going towards neutral territory. I am positioned bearish with a put option. I may get out today or tomorrow based on how this behaves.

XBI: Getting out of the hole it was in very fast. Up 7% today which is over enthusiasm I think. I will get out of my bearish trade when there is some pullback in this space.

QQQ: Could also be getting out of the bearish trend. It all depends on how the rest of today shapes up.

XRT: Very bearish. I am long the January put options and will likely stay that way.

 


08
Nov 16

Markets Quiet Before The Storm

The markets went up dramatically yesterday and today it is very calm and lukewarm. It does look like yesterday’s action was the recognition was that Clinton is going to win. I guess the question in everyone’s mind is what happens tomorrow – the day after the election. In general my sense is that the risk is still to the downside. There are several reasons for that. One is that Clinton wins but not with a good mandate. This could even mean (at its worst) a contested election result. That is a really bad situation for the markets. Of course if Trump wins all bets are off. If Clinton wins with a large mandate then markets could go higher.

Let us not forget that the general trend of the market is down. The SPY bounced but is still trending bearish. Same with IWM, EEM and QQQ. The XLF is showing signs of bouncing back towards a bullish trend but it is alone in that action. The XLV and XBI are still broken.

So, I am still hedged as I see the risk to the downside.


07
Nov 16

The Election Trade

From all indications it looks like Hillary Clinton will win the election tomorrow. What is really interesting is whether the Democrats will also take the Senate. Right now it looks that way. If that happens it would be a strong mandate for Hillary. The House seems like will still remain Republican. So, the overall givernment will be split. However, having the Senate behind her may make stronger and the expectations from her first 2 years could be higher than normal.

The general concensus is that there will be a bounce in the aftermath of a Clinton victory. In fact, the pre-market numbers look like there will be a very strong bounce of the lows we have seen.

From the trends perspective, SPY is still very bearish. IWM could be looking to bounce. EEM looks bad. The Technology sector (XLK and QQQ) both look bad. The XLF is neutral. The XLE is broken as well.

XLV and XBI both look broken and will likely have a negative impact even if Hillary wins. I am long puts on both of them.

I am positioned bearishly in the market but will look to trim if I see the trends turning for real.


04
Nov 16

Open Bearish Trades: SPY, IWM, EEM, QQQ, XLV

I am positioned very bearishly at the moment in the market. My current trades are:

Long SPXS based on trend seen in SPY. My expectation is for SPY to be trending down. SPXS is the leveraged play for that.

Long TZA based on trend seen in IWM. TZA is the leveraged play for IWM going down.

Long EEM 36.5 December put options.

Long QQQ 114 December put options.

Long XLV 66 December put options.